Key Highlights
- Polymarket listed a market titled “U.S. confirms pilots rescued by…?” allowing users to buy yes or no positions.
- Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), a Marine combat veteran, called the market “disgusting.”
- Polymarket removed the market and said it was investigating how it “slipped through internal safeguards.”
“They Could Be Your Neighbor. And People Are Betting on Whether They’ll Be Saved.”
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Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market platform, removed a market on Friday that allowed users to wager on the date a U.S. pilot shot down over Iran would be rescued—but only after a wave of public outrage led by a decorated combat veteran in Congress.
The market, titled “U.S. confirms pilots rescued by…?”, offered two date outcomes—April 3 and April 4—with users able to buy “Yes” or “No” positions on each. At the time it was flagged, the April 3 outcome was trading at 15% and April 4 at 63%.
The market appeared while an active search and rescue operation for at least one missing American service member was still underway. A U.S. fighter jet was shot down over Iran on Friday, the first since the Israeli-U.S. war on Iran began five weeks ago. One crew member has been rescued since the crash. Information about potential other crew members on board and their whereabouts has not been released.
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Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), who served four combat tours in the U.S. Marine Corps between 2001 and 2008, was among the first to call it out publicly. “There is an ongoing search and rescue operation for a missing American service member whose plane was shot down over Iran. Their safety is unknown,” Moulton wrote on X. “They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member. And people are betting on whether or not they’ll be saved. This is DISGUSTING.”
Moulton also flagged a potential insider trading angle: “Quick reminder too that @DonaldJTrumpJr is an investor in this dystopian death market and may have access to intelligence that isn’t public yet.”
Polymarket pulls the market, blames internal failure
Polymarket responded within hours, removing the market and posting a statement on X: “We took this market down immediately as it does not meet our integrity standards. It should not have been posted, and we are investigating how this slipped through our internal safeguards.”
However, critics pointed out that the explanation raised more questions than it answered. Business Insider’s Jack Newsham noted that Polymarket’s own “Market Integrity” page and terms of service did not clearly identify which specific prohibition the pilot rescue market violated.
More critically, Moulton followed up by noting that the platform’s Iran tab remained full of active markets, including “U.S. forces enter Iran by…?”, “US x Iran ceasefire by…?”, and “Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by…?”—all of which effectively allow users to profit from the timing of military operations and the deaths they cause.
A pattern, not an isolated incident
The pilot rescue market is not the first time Polymarket has faced backlash and ethical questions over war-related bets—and not even the most controversial one in recent weeks.
The platform has been at the center of an escalating controversy since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28. On Polymarket alone, over $529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the attack. A trader using the handle “Magamyman” made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market about Iran and its Supreme Leader just before an Israeli strike killed him.
One trader had won a staggering 93% of five-figure wagers about Iran, netting nearly $967,000 — even though the events they predicted were unannounced military operations. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six suspected insiders who collectively made $1.2 million on well-timed Iran strike bets.
In March, Polymarket quietly archived its nuclear detonation prediction market after the “Nuclear weapon detonation by…?” contract accumulated over $838,000 in volume. The platform issued no public explanation for the removal.
And just weeks ago, Kalshi faced backlash over a multi-million dollar market on whether Iran’s supreme leader would be ousted. After Khamenei was confirmed killed in the first wave of strikes on February 28, Kalshi issued refunds, citing regulations barring wagers on death—a decision that infuriated traders who felt they had been deceived by fine-print clauses.
The Trump Jr. connection and insider trading concerns
Moulton’s reference to Donald Trump Jr. is not incidental. Trump Jr. is an adviser to Polymarket, and his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, has invested millions into the business. The President Donald Trump administration has also dropped two federal investigations into Polymarket that were opened under former President Joe Biden.
The insider trading concerns are now the subject of active legislation. Senators Merkley and Klobuchar introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act, which would bar the President, Vice President, members of Congress, and their immediate families from trading event contracts on prediction platforms, with fines and profit clawbacks for violations.
Separately, Rep. Nikki Budzinski and Rep. Adrian Smith co-sponsored the BETS OFF Act, which would prohibit platforms from allowing bets on government actions, terrorism, war, or assassination.
In Israel, an IDF Air Force reservist was indicted for allegedly betting on Polymarket on the timing of Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities—using classified information obtained through his military service.
Polymarket updated its market integrity rules in late March, prohibiting trades based on DeFi platforms, U.S. exchanges and barring users who “hold a position of authority or influence” from trading on related outcomes. The company said it uses a “multi-layered monitoring system” and partners with surveillance and technology specialists to detect violations.
Critics, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, called the changes insufficient. “There are SO many individuals — staff, advisers, consultants, cabinet secretaries, spouses, and more — that can trade on insider information. This is just a fig leaf,” she wrote.
Where is the line?
The pilot rescue market was removed. But the question it raised remains unanswered: if Polymarket’s integrity standards prohibit betting on whether a specific service member will be rescued, why do they permit betting on the timing of military strikes that will kill people, ceasefire dates that hinge on casualty counts, or whether U.S. ground forces will enter a sovereign nation?
Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Coplan addressed the broader controversy at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in March, calling it a “complicated question” but defending prediction markets as providing a “powerful informational function” even in war zones. He dismissed some criticism as “more money, more problems.”
The platform continues to operate over 245 live Iran-related prediction markets, with the “U.S. forces enter Iran by…?” contract alone having accumulated $116.1 million in total trading volume. ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, recently poured another $600 million into Polymarket, and the platform is reportedly targeting a $20 billion valuation.
For the missing American service member whose fate briefly became a tradable contract, the market has been removed. For the war itself—and the lives caught up in it—the bets remain open.
