Bitcoin is pinned near $76,000 below $79,000 resistance as ETF outflows, Fed infighting, and record shorts sap risk appetite and keep volatility unnaturally muted.
Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $76,000 on Thursday, struggling to break above a resistance band between $78,000 and $79,000 even after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, keeping markets fixated on internal policy fractures and macro uncertainty. According to an analysis by The Block, on-chain and flow data point to a market that has stabilized on the downside but lacks the conviction to force a clean breakout above the current range.
Kraken chief economist Thomas Perfumo said the market is now “more concerned about the policy uncertainties brought about by the ‘division’ within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself,” especially with Jerome Powell still in place while Kevin Warsh is widely expected to take over, leaving “no clear policy transition.” He added that this leadership overhang compounds the impact of a Fed that has rarely shown such severe internal splits, a dynamic traders read as greater uncertainty over the inflation path.
Glassnode data cited in the report show Bitcoin remains “trapped” below its True Market Mean, with resistance clustered in the $78,000–$79,000 zone and a layered support base between $65,000 and $70,000. Selling pressure has eased considerably at these lower levels, but spot demand has not expanded enough to sustain a decisive move higher, leaving price pinned between patient buyers and hesitant new capital.
On the macro side, institutions including Bitget Wallet and 21Shares argue that expectations of “maintaining high interest rates for a longer term” are suppressing risk assets broadly, pushing crypto into a wait-and-see phase instead of the trending conditions that typically accompany aggressive Fed easing. This comes as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs register net outflows for three consecutive sessions, with roughly $138 million leaving on April 29 alone; Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, saw about $87.7 million in outflows over the same period.
While certain individual funds still attract inflows, the aggregate pattern signals cooling institutional demand at the margin. At the same time, CME positioning and ETF assets under management have stabilized rather than rebounded, suggesting that sidelined capital has yet to commit back into size.
In derivatives, short positions in Bitcoin perpetual contracts have climbed to historical highs, creating the technical conditions for a potential short squeeze if sentiment or macro signals suddenly improve. For now, though, the market is marked by low volatility and low confidence, with continuous ETF outflows, a split Fed, and elevated policy risk collectively capping Bitcoin’s attempts to clear the $78,000–$79,000 ceiling.
