Will Pi Network price drop back to $0.15 as it forms bearish divergence?

Pi Network price remained under pressure on Monday as weakening momentum indicators and growing concerns surrounding upcoming token unlocks raised the risk of another decline toward the $0.15 support zone.

According to data from crypto.news, Pi Network (PI) traded around $0.173 at press time on May 11, struggling to sustain the recovery attempt seen late last month. The token has now fallen sharply from its March peak near $0.30 and continues consolidating close to its recent lows.

Pi Network has lagged behind many large-cap altcoins as traders remain cautious over the token’s supply dynamics and still-limited exchange liquidity.

One of the main bearish catalysts remains Pi Network’s ongoing token unlock schedule. Over 174 million of previously locked PI tokens are still expected to enter circulation by the end of this month as more users complete migration and KYC processes.

Such unlocks often increase selling pressure because early holders and miners may choose to take profits after extended lockup periods. The growing circulating supply could continue weighing on price unless demand rises at a similar pace.

At the same time, market participants remain uncertain over the timeline for broader ecosystem utility and exchange expansion. While Pi Network continues developing its infrastructure and migration process, traders appear to be waiting for stronger real-world adoption catalysts before aggressively re-entering positions.

On the daily chart, PI continues trading inside a broader downtrend after failing to hold above the March breakout rally. Price action has now formed a series of lower highs while struggling to build sustained bullish momentum.

The chart also shows a developing bearish divergence between price and the MACD indicator. While PI attempted several short-term rebounds in recent weeks, the MACD histogram and signal lines continued weakening, suggesting bullish momentum has steadily faded underneath the surface.

Meanwhile, PI remains below the key 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $0.195 and continues hovering close to the lower end of the retracement range. Failure to reclaim that resistance area may encourage sellers to maintain control over the near-term trend.

The Supertrend indicator has also flipped bearish again, with resistance now sitting near the $0.185 region. As long as price remains below that level, downside risks could continue dominating short-term sentiment.

If selling pressure accelerates further, PI could revisit the major support zone near $0.163, which aligns with the 0% Fibonacci retracement level shown on the chart. A breakdown below that area may expose the token to a deeper correction toward the psychological $0.15 level.

On the upside, bulls would need to reclaim the $0.195 resistance region to invalidate the bearish setup and potentially reopen the path toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $0.215.